From Scientific American
You have to wonder about the judgment of a man who writes, "As I drive by those smelly refineries on the New Jersey Turnpike, I want to roll the windows down and inhale deeply." But for Kenneth S. Deffeyes, that's the smell of home. The son of a petroleum engineer, he was born in Oklahoma, "grew up in the oil patch," became a geologist and worked for Shell Oil before becoming a professor at Princeton University. And he still knows how to wield a 36-inch-long pipe wrench. In Hubbert's Peak, Deffeyes writes with good humor about the oil business, but he delivers a sobering message: the 100-year petroleum era is nearly over. Global oil production will peak sometime between 2004 and 2008, and the world's production of crude oil "will fall, never to rise again." If Deffeyes is right--and if nothing is done to reduce the increasing global thirst for oil--energy prices will soar and economies will be plunged into recession as they desperately search for alternatives. It's tempting to dismiss Deffeyes as just another of the doomsayers who have been predicting, almost since oil was discovered, that we are running out of it. But Deffeyes makes a persuasive case that this time it's for real. This is an oilman and geologist's assessment of the future, grounded in cold mathematics. And it's frightening. Deffeyes's prediction is based on the work of M. King Hubbert, a Shell geologist who in 1956 predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s and then begin to decline. Hubbert was dismissed by many experts inside and outside the oil industry. Pro-Hubbert and anti-Hubbert factions arose and persisted until 1970, when U.S. oil production peaked and started its long decline. The Hubbert method is based on the observation that oil production in any region follows a bell-shaped curve. Production increases rapidly at first, as the cheapest and most readily accessible oil is recovered. As the difficulty of extracting the oil increases, it becomes more expensive and less competitive with other fuels. Production slows, levels off and begins to fall. Hubbert demonstrated that total U.S. oil production in 1956 was tracing the upside of such a curve. To know when the curve would most likely peak, however, he had to know how much oil remained in the ground. Underground reserves provide a glimpse of the future: when the rate of new discoveries does not keep up with the growth of oil production, the amount of oil remaining underground begins to fall. That's a tip-off that a decline in production lies ahead. Deffeyes used a slightly more sophisticated version of the Hubbert method to make the global calculations. The numbers pointed to 2003 as the year of peak production, but because estimates of global reserves are inexact, Deffeyes settled on a range from 2004 to 2008. Three things could upset Deffeyes's prediction. One would be the discovery of huge new oil deposits. A second would be the development of drilling technology that could squeeze more oil from known reserves. And a third would be a steep rise in oil prices, which would make it profitable to recover even the most stubbornly buried oil. In a delightfully readable and informative primer on oil exploration and drilling, Deffeyes addresses each point. First, the discovery of new oil reserves is unlikely--petroleum geologists have been nearly everywhere, and no substantial finds have been made since the 1970s. Second, billions have already been poured into drilling technology, and it's not going to get much better. And last, even very high oil prices won't spur enough new production to delay the inevitable peak. "This much is certain," he writes. "No initiative put in place starting today can have a substantial effect on the peak production year. No Caspian Sea exploration, no drilling in the South China Sea, no SUV replacements, no renewable energy projects can be brought on at a sufficient rate to avoid a bidding war for the remaining oil." The only answer, Deffeyes says, is to move as quickly as possible to alternative fuels--including natural gas and nuclear power, as well as solar, wind and geothermal energy. "Running out of energy in the long run is not the problem," Deffeyes explains. "The bind comes during the next 10 years: getting over our dependence on crude oil." The petroleum era is coming to a close. "Fossil fuels are a one-time gift that lifted us up from subsistence agriculture and eventually should lead us to a future based on renewable resources," Deffeyes writes. Those are strong words for a man raised in the oil patch. For the rest of us, the end of the world's dependence on oil means we need to make some tough political and economic choices. For Deffeyes, it means he can't go home again. Paul Raeburn covers science and energy for Business Week and is the author of Mars: Uncovering the Secrets of the Red Planet (National Geographic, 1998).--This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.
John R. Alden, Baltimore Sun
An intelligent, briskly written and refreshingly nontechnical book.
Review
Reading Hubbert's Peak is the intellectual equivalent of bungee jumping, being simultaneously exhilarating and terrifying.
Brian J. Skinner, American Scientist
Read Hubbert's Peak-it's better to know what lies ahead than to be surprised too late to respond. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.
Review
I read this book with pleasure and profit, learning a great deal painlessly.
R. C. Selley , Geological Magazine
Reading Hubbert's Peak is the intellectual equivalent of bungee jumping, being simultaneously exhilarating and terrifying.--This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.
Review
This book . . . should be read . . . by all politicians, by all students, no matter what their discipline, and indeed by anyone concerned about their grandchildren's welfare. Reading Hubbert's Peak is the intellectual equivalent of bungee jumping, being simultaneously exhilarating and terrifying.
Book Description
Geophysicist M. King Hubbert predicted in 1956 that U.S. oil production would reach its highest level in the early 1970s. Though roundly criticized by oil experts and economists, Hubbert's prediction came true in 1970. In this revised and updated edition reflecting the latest information on the world supply of oil, Kenneth Deffeyes uses Hubbert's methods to find that world oil production will peak in this decade--and there isn't anything we can do to stop it. While long-term solutions exist in the form of conservation and alternative energy sources, they probably cannot--and almost certainly will not--be enacted in time to evade a short-term catastrophe.
From the Inside Flap
"This book is important in that it is addressed to the general public, which is overwhelmingly ignorant of the fundamentals of earth's resources and basic economics. It will be very useful to teachers, news media personnel, and public policy makers."--Craig W. Van Kirk, Colorado School of Mines "The timing of this book is excellent. Energy issues will be heard with increasing frequency during the next five years, and the general public will be looking for information with which they can make sense of changes in energy supply and prices."--Robert K. Kaufmann, Boston University "I read this book with pleasure and profit, learning a great deal painlessly."--Robert M. Solow, Massachusetts Institute of Technology --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.
From the Back Cover
"This book is important in that it is addressed to the general public, which is overwhelmingly ignorant of the fundamentals of earth's resources and basic economics. It will be very useful to teachers, news media personnel, and public policy makers."--Craig W. Van Kirk, Colorado School of Mines "The timing of this book is excellent. Energy issues will be heard with increasing frequency during the next five years, and the general public will be looking for information with which they can make sense of changes in energy supply and prices."--Robert K. Kaufmann, Boston University "I read this book with pleasure and profit, learning a great deal painlessly."--Robert M. Solow, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
About the Author
Kenneth S. Deffeyes is Professor Emeritus at Princeton University. He grew up in the oilfields; his father was a pioneer petroleum engineer. At the Shell Oil research laboratory in Houston, he was a colleague of M. King Hubbert. He joined the Princeton faculty in 1967 and continued to participate in the petroleum industry as a consultant and as an expert witness. General readers best know Deffeyes as the guide/mentor in John McPhee's series of popular books on geology, collected and republished under the title "Annals of the Former World". Rating 3.5
A View from the Top of Hubberts Peak - Oil at the crestThe focus of Ken Deffeyes' book is the impending peak in global oil production which is anticipated some time this decade (2001-2010). It will be the consequence of several factors, apart from rising world demand, including a decline in the size and number of newly discovered major oil fields located around the world since the late 1980s. The book reflects upon some of the more technical issues involved in why world oil is about to peak and likely to decline. Kenneth Deffeyes is someone who grew up with a strong family connection to the petroleum industry and he builds upon his subsequent experiences as an academic and teacher to examine the major technical issues underlying the impending decline in 'cheap' oil.
Deffeyes starts his analysis with how oil is formed and aggregates into pools within the pores of rock layers which comprise the earth's crust. This process he links to the unpredictability of identifying oil-bearing regions, and especially to producing the high-grade part of an oil resource. One of the consequences of the uncertainty underlying the geological and exploration activity is that when oil is found in commercial quantities the largest oil fields are usually found early in the discovery process. As a consequence, oil production from a newly-discovered region is likely to peak early in the history of exploration and production and decline notably thereafter. To overcome this empirical trend petroleum exploration must renew the resource by locating and developing new sources of supply, a process which the world has very few options remaining.
For an underlying thesis to his book Deffeyes points to the statistical observation made by his colleague in the petroleum industry M. King Hubbert who in 1956 reported that US domestic oil production was exhibiting a `bell' shaped statistically normal distribution. As a consequence, King Hubbert predicted (somewhat unpopularly at the time) that if this trend continued domestic U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s. In fact, the domestic US oil production peak occurred in 1970. Deffeyes postulates, as his central theme that, like King Hubberts' 1950s prediction for the US oil industry, world oil production will follow a 'normal distribution' and thus is now about to experience the peak of global oil production with significant downside consequences. He supports this central thesis by showing how the various forms of petroleum production technology cannot alleviate any ongoing decline in oil productivity.
Deffeyes builds upon the argument that the underlying pattern of oil resource discovery, production and decline is evident in most oil producing regions of the world. He sees no future alternative but to maximise the development of high efficiency technology for oil use, greater use of cogeneration, and serious use of renewable and nuclear energy sources. The overall outlook produced by Deffeyes is not one of optimism but this may be a consequence of his focus on oil alone.
The greatest weakness in his argument is that he does not consider the importance of the most readily available substitute for oil - the supply of natural gas. If a global oil decline becomes readily evident then this will be the ultimate driver that makes the transition to natural gas and renewable energy sources such as hydrogen so much more attractive. The potential for widespread gas substitution is not covered by Deffeyes but for relatively gas-rich nations, such as Australia, the decline of the age of oil may be not be as bad as it could otherwise be. As such, Deffeyes' book is a useful insight into some of the technical aspects of the oil decline but not a complete one. The long-term oil situation may be serious if one limits one's outlook to just one resource (oil) but alternatives are available at a price.
Dr Ian Lavering
Adjunct Professor
Master of Business and Technology Program
UNSW
Allen Gilmer "Oil Man" is wrongI am a geophysicist who has worked with some of the technologies that Mr. Gilmer writes about, and they are not going to save us. My question to Mr. Gilmer is this: if we can exploit the oil that he speaks of, why aren't the oil companies doing it? They are buying back stock, increasing dividends and hoarding cash, but they have not substantially increased exploration budgets. I think oil companies know what Dr. Deffeyes knows; Hubbert's peak will come sooner rather than later.ErraticThis book provides a moderately strong argument that the production of cheap oil is peaking, although it isn't as conclusive an argument as I'd hoped for, and is only a little bit better than the brief summaries of Hubbert's ideas that I'd previously seen on the net.
Much of the book consists of marginally relevant stories of his career as a geologist. He occasionally slips in some valuable tidbits, such as that Texas once had an oil cartel.
He does a mediocre job of analyzing the consequences of scarcer oil. He provides a few hints of how natural gas could replace oil, but says much less about the costs of switching than I'd hoped for. His comments on how to protect yourself are misleading:
"In the past, a useful way of insuring major producers and consumers against the effect of a price changes was purchasing futures contracts. However, the ordinary futures contracts extend for a year or two. The oil problem extends for 10 years or more. The oil problem extends for 10 years or more. Anyone who agrees to supply oil 10 years from now, for a price agreed on today, very likely will disappear into bankruptcy before the contract matures."
At the time the book was first published (2001), crude oil futures contracts extended about 7 years out. They weren't liquid enough to hedge a large fraction of consumption, but if a desire to hedge had caused them to say in 2001 that crude would be at $60/barrel in 2008 rather than saying it would be in the low twenties, that would both have signaled a need to react and reduced the risks of doing so. The idea that bankruptcy would threaten such futures reflects his ignorance of the futures markets. An oil producer who sold futures as a hedge will almost certainly not sell more futures than it has oil to deliver on. Speculators might lose their shirts, but futures brokers have the experience needed to ensure that the defaults are small enough for the brokers to absorb (see, for example, what happened in the gold mania of the late 70s). |
